Despite the monthly increase in Factory Orders for June, the longer-term trend is downward. The year-to-date change in Factory Orders is -0.7%.
June's Factory Orders increased on +0.6%, much less than the +1.5% predicted. This follows a -0.5% decline in May.
Factory Orders are down -$16 billion (-0.7%) year-to-date for 2007, compared to the same period in 2006. June 2007's Factory Orders were -$5.6 billion (-1.3%) less than June 2006's total. Below is a partial copy of Table 2 from the Census Bureau, showing the changes. Key stats are underlined in red.
Below is a graph from Briefing.com showing the year-over-year trend in Factory Orders. Clearly the trend is downward, with year-over-year growth now in negative territory.
A similar downward path can be seen below for Nondurable Goods Orders, which are also showing a decline year-over-year.
Capital Goods Orders (Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft) are also declining year-over-year, as can be seen in the graph below from Briefing.com.
The above 3 graphs show a downward path that resembles the pattern preceding the 2001 recession. The economy continues to slide downward, as evidenced by the above 3 graphs, as well as Leading Indicators graph (shown below).
Despite Corporate Media spin, and the Bush junta's propaganda, the economy is going downhill. The stock market is NOT representative of the overall economy. It is a manifestation of delusional investors and unfounded optimism. And it's a trailing indicator of the economy. The stock market had reached record highs just before the 2001 recession, just like has recently. And there will be a fall, just like in 2001.
Or maybe like 1929.
unlawflcombatnt
Economic Populist Forum